At the BCHPA Annual General Meeting in Kelowna earlier this fall, we saw some interesting graphs originally made by Randy Oliver at scientific beekeeping with regard to potential for colony growth. A very well done presentation by Ian Steppler regarding colony management referred back to Randy’s charts extensively. That chart was a bit inspirational, but, I saw it had one flaw for us, it didn’t account for varroa. The other thing I wanted was to allow for trying out different colony start conditions, so I started writing some code. The interactive colony growth model is the result.
Colony Growth Model (opens in a new tab).
This interactive graph is based on the life cycle of the honey bee, and the life cycle of the varroa mite, and how they interact. As this model has matured, I have added blog postings to detail the various pieces and how they fit together. Here is a listing of the blog postings and which part they describe.
Hive models – contains a description of the initial math for modelling working population growth thru the season.
Adding Drones – contains a description of how we added drone populations.
Varroa – Contains the details on Varroa population growth.
Mange Varroa – Adding more functionality to allow management of a Varroa population.